Could Australian dollar lose status amongst commodity currencies?

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Category: Australian Dollar Articles

Published on Monday, 21 January 2013 10:20

Written by Sam Coventry

The Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) is at risk of losing its status as the top pick amongst the so called commodity currencies. More on this below, but first a look at the most recent rates:

The pound vs Australian dollar exchange rate is unchanged on Friday's closing rate at 1.5093.

The euro vs Aussie is 0.14 pct down at 1.2655.

Against the US dollar the Australian currency is 0.14 pct higher at 1.0525.

Please be aware that these are spot market rates; banks will charge a spread on the rate at their discretion. An independent provider is able to deliver the best possible rates by negotiating on the spread thus delivering the best possible exchange rates.

NZD could be preferred to AUD in commodity currency space

A commodity currency is one that is deemed to be driven by flows in the commodity market; Australia's massive mining sector is key in this estimation. Other currencies that fall in this bracket are the NZD, CAD and ZAR.

Live Charts and Aus Exchange Rates
Exchange Rate Forecasts 2013: USD GBP EUR AUD NZD JPY CHF CAD SEK NOK

According to analysis released this morning by Lloyds Bank notes how the AUD continues to trade with a soft tone, and further weakness could be expected:  

"We maintain the view that if AUD yields drop further it may lose its status as the preferred commodity currency among the majors, with the CAD and NZD potentially being preferred. Q4 CPI released on Wednesday will be a focus ahead of the RBA meeting on 5th Feb. Market is expecting inflation to rise to 2.4% y/y, which should help reduce market expectations of RBA rate cuts which would be AUD supportive."

Bank of Japan will be of importance to AUD

According to Caxton FX the aussie dollar will take further guidance from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision.

"The coming overnight session will see the Bank of Japan announce its next move as far as monetary policy is concerned. The market is already expecting pretty aggressive monetary easing measures, so the AUD may not benefit quite as much as you might think," says Richard Driver at Caxton FX.

Tuesday night also brings a key quarterly Australian inflation reading, which is likely to be weak. We should see speculation surrounding another RBA rate cut intensify.