Australian dollar: RBA unlikely to intervene on currency markets; but could cut interest rates to act on overvalued AUD

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Category: Australian Dollar Articles

Published on Tuesday, 29 January 2013 15:51

Written by Rob Samson

The Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) has recorded some fresh gains today after a poorly few days:

The pound / Australian dollar exchange rate is unchanged on Monday night's closing level at 1.5069.

The euro / Australian dollar rate is 0.2 pct lower at 1.2893.

The Australian dollar / US dollar exchange rate is 0.4 pct up at 1.0459.

Please note these are spot market rates. Your bank will affix their own spread to the rate before passing it on. An independent currency provider will guarantee to beat that rate and thus deliver you more currency. Please read more.

Barclays: We don't expect the RBA to get involved

Barclays analyst Aroop Chatterjee has today given his thoughts on talk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been trying to devalue AUD in an under-hand manner:

Live Charts and Aus Exchange Rates
Exchange Rate Forecasts 2013: USD GBP EUR AUD NZD JPY CHF CAD SEK NOK

"We do not think the RBA “passively” intervened in the FX market to weaken the AUD in the second half of 2012. Instead, this was most likely a short-term deposit accepted from an overseas institution that has now been unwound."

Chatterjee says an argument for RBA FX intervention can be made on the basis of AUD overvaluation, but recent RBA comments suggest direct intervention is unlikely.

"We forecast the RBA policy rate will remain unchanged at 3.00% this year. However, if downside risks to growth and inflation emerge, we expect RBA rate cuts, rather than FX intervention, to be the preferred, and more effective, option," says Chatterjee, "while low risk of RBA FX intervention, expanding global central bank balance sheets and improving risk sentiment are likely to support the AUD, these are likely to be fully offset near term by mixed data and narrowing rate differentials."