Australian dollar still currency market ugly duckling, more losses forecast by Lloyds Bank who pencil in parity vs USD

Details

Category: Australian Dollar Articles

Published on Thursday, 07 February 2013 12:25

Written by Rob Samson

Looking at the spot market rates we see the Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) remains under pressure:

The pound / Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.2 pct higher than at Wednesday night's closing level; GBP/AUD is at 1.5205.

The euro / Australian dollar exchange rate is a quarter of a percent higher at 1.3137.

The Australian dollar / US dollar exchange rate is 0.09 pct higher at 1.0330.

Note: These are spot market rates, your bank will add a discretionary spread before delivering their retail rate. An independent FX provider will however guarantee to beat your bank's offer. Please find out more here.

Aussie employment data not as bad as expected but the market is unconvinced

"Last night brought the release of some firmer than expected aussie data; the unemployment rate avoided a rise to 5.5%, while 10.4K were added to the employment rolls. These figures still point to labour market weakness and we expect this to remain the case for the next few months at least," says Richard Driver at Caxton FX.

The coming overnight session brings the RBA monetary policy statement and some key Chinese trade balance data.

Dovish language from the RBA should be priced in by now.

Australian currency starting to show real signs of weakness

"The AUD is starting to show real signs of weakness, and we see scope for a break down to test parity in AUD/USD the next few weeks," warns a daily currency note from Lloyds Bank.

Lloyds say valuation is stretched, and there is little reason for these lofty levels when the rest of the world is looking less stressed and yield spreads offer modest and diminishing attraction.

While employment rose in January, full time employment fell for the third consecutive month – the first time since 2009.

Mixed NZ employment update weakens the kiwi dollar

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar has also shed weight.

"Data last night revealed that the NZ unemployment rate declined from 7.3% to 6.9% - a decent result. However, the number of people in employed in Q4 reduced by 1.0% - though this was mainly due to a reduction in part-time jobs," says Driver.

This pair knee-jerked higher on the data though we doubt this is the start of a major rally for this pair.