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Australian dollar rally could be running out of steam, British pound makes advances as Chinese economy slows

The Australian dollar could be running out of steam.

The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.14% higher with GBP/AUD at 1.4719. The pound New Zealand dollar exchange rate is 01% higher at 1.8917.

"The aussie dollar has had an excellent run in the past two and a half months, we have seen GBP/AUD fall from 1.60 to lows close to 1.46. However, it is looking increasingly likely that the aussie dollar’s rally is running out of steam," says Richard Driver, an analyst with Caxton Fx.


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News out of China will also provide weakness for the AUD.

Confirmation that the Chinese Government has instructed its banks to roll over loans to local Government combined with speculation that the Government may be about to embark on further stimulus serve as a reminder as to the difficulties faced by many Governments around the world.

They must simultaneously balance the needs of the economy, the country’s creditors and the demands of citizens.

The loans are the consequence of the massive stimulus the Chinese released in response to the global crisis.

That said, the British pound will also struggle today in light of recent inflation statistics that have shown month on month inflation for January sitting at 3.6.

This will justify views that expansionary monetary policy is not yet pushing inflation.

Expansionary monetary policy is a sterling-negative.

The British pound remains at low levels against the New Zealand dollar and won’t be helped by strong US and New Zealand  retail sales figures.

"We are likely to see further robust growth in kiwi retail sales this evening, which could give NZD a minor push. The equivalent US figure will be more important however, though this release looks likely to give risk appetite a boost as well. Asian stocks also held up well last night to give the kiwi some support," says Driver.

Sterling continues to trade only marginally above 1.89 this morning and the best sterling can probably hope for is flat trading. 

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