Forex: Pound Australian dollar exchange rate stable today, but AUD strength forecasted to persist

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Category: Exchange Rates

Published on Friday, 23 November 2012 10:53

Written by Will Peters

The Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) firmed up against a particularly soft GBP yesterday, helped by Chinese data, and this is where we find markets remaining today:

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.05 pct in the red at 1.5333.

The Australian dollar to US dollar currency rate is 0.05 pct in the blue at 1.0396.

"This week’s positive Chinese growth data has really helped to lift market sentiment this week. Wider US data has also been very positive this week, which has helped to maintain support for riskier currencies, sparking hopes that the global economy is ready to bounce back," says Richard Driver at Caxton FX.

Sterling is trading below 1.5350 and Driver believes sterling is likely to remain under pressure as we head into the weekend. 

Australian dollar to be supported by high-yielding interest rates

UBS analysts have meanwhile forecasted that the Australian dollar will maintain its strength on the back of the 'carry trade' for a while yet.

The 'carry trade' sees investors buy high-yielding Australian dollars to take advantage of Australia's beneficial interest rates. Thus, the currency is bid higher.

UBS have said that absolute Australian yields remain high, and compared to a year ago, 12m forward expectations are actually over 40bp ‘better off’.

"As such so there is no reason to be negative and another factor in why the AUD is so hard to sell," says Geoffrey Yu at UBS.

"At some point investors will ask just how long this could last. Australia’s need (repeated often by the RBA) to see foreign exchange rates move more in line with the deterioration in terms of trade is well known. Ultimately though the adjustment will only happen when the flows dry up, of which the timing remains suspect," says Yu.