Australian dollar under pressure as rate cut looms next week, 25bp predicted

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Category: Exchange Rates

Published on Friday, 30 November 2012 11:14

Written by Will Peters

The Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) continues to be shunted lower as investors and traders position themselves accordingly for an interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.

Even fellow currency market under-performer, the British pound, is able to advance against the Aussie, GBP/AUD is at 1.5329.

The Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate is 0.1 pct lower at 1.0425.

The Australian dollar to euro is 0.27 pct in the red at 0.8019.

Consensus that we are to witness an interest rate cut next week continues to grow. Barclays:

"We are more confident in our call that the Reserve Bank will cut by 25bp to 3% at the 4 December board meeting. While the bank paused in November given a slight improvement in world economic news and higher underlying inflation, it has emphasised that it has a strong easing bias.

"With wages on the low side in Q3 and the investment outlook for 2012-13 materially weaker, we are now more confident that the bank will cut next Tuesday (the market odds of a 25bp cut have also increased from about 60% to 70%)."

UBS:

"The Australian dollar came under moderate selling pressure after Australia’s Q3 capex report was published overnight. Spending during the quarter beat consensus estimates but miners sharply downgraded their spending plans for the current financial year.

"The report cements the view of our Australian economics team that the RBA is likely to cut another 25 bp off the cash rate on Tuesday, and they now acknowledge a risk that a further cut may even be needed later. Currently only 18 bp worth of easing is priced into the rates market for this meeting, suggesting there is scope for some AUDUSD downside next week."