RBS and the OECD believe the UK is in recession as expectations of another quarter of economic decline is predicted for Q1 2012

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Category: Financials

Published on Thursday, 29 March 2012 11:34

Written by Sam Coventry

Will is on

This morning RBS (LON:RBS) have told clients they believe the UK is in technical recession.

The RBS GDP Tracker is signalling a 0.1% decline in GDP in Q1 2012.

This follows the 0.3% contraction in Q4 2011 and would mark relapse into 'technical recession'.

"The underlying picture is not as grim in the sense that the published data and surveys show broad-based expansion (0.6% q/q in services, 0.2% in industrial production), but this is offset by a huge decline in construction output (-7.2% q/q). Whilst the underlying position looks more reassuring (expansion in Q1 across over 90% of the economy, with GDP-ex construction up 0.5%), the risks of a flat or negative headline outturn in Q1 may well disappoint market expectations," say RBS.

Today the OECD has warned it sees the UK economy contracting an annualised 0.4 percent in the first quarter before posting growth of 0.5 percent in the following quarter.

The negative growth for the 1st quarter would fulfil the terms of a technical recession.

"In the UK one might argue in favour of additional easing," Padoan said, adding that the outlook was still too uncertain for most countries to begin setting a time frame for winding down crisis measures.