ARM Holdings Plc: ARM may be epicentre of change in computing but stock too expensive says analyst

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Category: Share Price Drivers

Published on Wednesday, 23 January 2013 15:42

Written by Sam Coventry

ARM Holdings plc (LON:ARM and NASDAQ:ARMH) is looking too price at current levels argues analyst Gary Mobley at Benchmark Co.

Mobley has today cut his rating on ARM's stock to Hold from Buy despite acknowledging how fundamentally sound the firm's business model is

"There is good reason for the positive investor sentiment as ARM is at the epicenter of a secular change in computing,” Mobley tells investors.

However, everything has its price, and ARM could be exceeding its own.

Over the past year ARMH is up 55 pct and now trades in the region of 50 times its FY 2013 non-GAAP Earning Per Share forecast of 84 cents.

"We believe investor expectations have become a little too bullish," says Mobley.

The analyst notes that investors have gotten used to ARM beating published revenue and profit estimates, and that management’s guidance is generally viewed as "vague and ulta-conservative."

The result, he says, is that whisper estimates creep higher:

"Starting with Q4 2012, we can already see how Street expectations have become aggressive,” he writes. “The current Q4 consensus revenue estimate is $238.0 million, which is slightly above previous guidance … We believe ARM will experience a strong Q4 and should report revenue at least in line with consensus. However, we believe whisper expectations for Q4 revenue is ~$240 million."

US reporting season continues to underpin markets

Market action remains broadly positive this afternoon.

"Google, McDonalds and IBM offered investors some confidence after posting better than expected earnings whilst Coach Inc failed to beat analysts’ expectations. Apple and Netflix are due to release earnings after the close this evening giving investors a further insight into the health of the technology sector," says Lee Mumford at Spreadex.

Trial date set for former boss of Anglo Irish Bank

The former head of defunct Anglo Irish Bank will go on trial next year over his alleged role in Ireland's biggest bank failure, the highest-profile trial of a banker linked to the country's financial meltdown.

Sean FitzPatrick, the face of Ireland's banking crisis after serving as Anglo chief executive during its stellar rise and chairman during its rapid fall, faces 16 charges of fraud relating to the bank's collapse.

He will go on trial on Jan. 13 with fellow former executives Pat Whelan and Willie McAteer, a Circuit Criminal Court judge said on Wednesday. The three have yet to make any plea.

Fresh job cuts at Lloyds Banking Group announced

Lloyds Banking Group has now, since the rescue of HBOS, cut 38,000 jobs after another 940 cuts were announced today.

"This is a bleak start to the year for hard-working Lloyds employees and bad news for the UK economy on a day when the small fall in the numbers unemployed was supposed to be good news," Ged Nichols, general secretary of the Accord union, said.

The bailed out bank said the latest cuts would take place across the group in operations as diverse as insurance, retail, wealth, international and commercial, with the highest concentration in Scotland where 230 roles will be lost.